Curtis C. Darragh

$11,000 Towards Your Closing Costs!

• 1,864 sq. ft., 1 bath, 3 bdrm 2 story - MLS® $185,000

Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County  -  ATTENTION BUYERS!
The Federal Home Buying Credit has expired, but this seller feels you still deserve it. So he's going to give you $11,000 towards your closing costs! This fine home has freshly painted interior and exterior as well as refinished hardwood floors. This home offers stainless appliances, covered entry, covered rear porch, fenced-in back yard, seasonal views of the river, and two additional rooms in the attic for storage. All this in walking distance to the train, hospital and river front! Hurry, before it’s gone!

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Foreclosure!

• 3,040 sq. ft., 3 bath, 4 bdrm colonial - MLS® $429,900

Wappingers Falls, Dutchess County  -  **Foreclosure**

Attention buyers, this sizeable Colonial is in need of your love. With a little TLC you can make this your dream home. It offers a fireplace, deck, finished walk-out basement with a wet bar and full bathroom. Perfect for entertaining. Sold as-is.

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Congress has passed a bill extending the Homebuyer Tax Credit closing deadline to September 30, 2010. 
The extension applies only to transactions that had ratified contracts in place as of April 30, 2010, and have not yet closed.  There will be no gap between June 30 and the date the President signs the bill into law. 

The question is will this matter... the answer? Not really. Yes this will help those buyers that met the April 30th deadline but are having a difficult time closing. This is a good thing. But since a buyer already had to be in contract, this will not stimulate any future purchasing.

In my opinion the home buyer credit did nothing to stimulate the real estate market. Did sales increase during the program? Yes, the numbers will support that. But it did it artifically, there was no change in the market itself, therefore the rules of supply and demand will take over once the deadline has expired and we will see the market drop even lower than expected. Why... because we took the demand in the market and artificially moved it it forward, but the demand did not change. Therefore the home buyers credit will create a vacuum and the real estate market(s) will free fall until they come back in line with the natural demand in the market.

The moral of the story... Hang on kids, this bumpy ride isn't over yet!

Hyde Park, Dutchess County  -  The 2 story at 128 East Market Street has been sold.

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Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County  -  The single story at 19 Chestnut Street has been sold.

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The new Health Care legislation has been a very hot topic lately. Regardless of which side of the fence you fall on, it's important to know how this legislation will affect you individually. Unfortunately this is easier said than done, even the Politicians that voted it into law don't know the in's and outs of this legislation. I believe it was Nancy Pelosi that said "We have to pass this bill so you can find out what's in it" .... really, is that the best way to create law? Since this isn't a political blog I'll leave that one for the Pundits.

 We all know this will affect our health care. For some it will make it better for others it may make it worse. Some people will have to pay more while others will pay less. I run a small business so all of this is very important to me, but what really concerns me is will this affect the Real Estate Market?

 As we found out with the mortgage crisis, as the real estate market tumbles, the economy is likely to follow. There is so much tied to the real estate markets, new construction, residential resale to the rental market. Jobs are on the line, financial markets are on the line, and much more. It's important for Politicians to understand the side effects of the laws they pass. What has caught my attention is the drastic increase in the Capital Gains Tax.  This new legislation calls for major increases in the Capital Gains tax to help pay for it.

I'm told we are currently experiencing a "Jobless Recovery" from the current recession. Sounds like an oxymoron to me, but I don't hold one of those fancy "EXPERT" titles. I've tried applying but keep getting turned down based on my excessive use of common sense. Sorry I digress! So we have a recovery taking place even though unemployment is at record levels. Real estate prices are extremely low in many parts of the country and interest rates are being kept artificially low even with the threat of inflation. My experience, most buyers currently in the market are investors and first time homebuyers that were priced out of the market previously. An increase in the capital gains tax won't affect first time homebuyers purchasing homes to live in (at least in the short term). THAT'S A GOOD THING! But we have a large percentage of buyers purchasing as investments, either to fix and resell homes to owner occupants or purchasing rentals. According to Christopher Neefus of CNSNews.com the new law calls for an increase in "Unearned Income" from the current rate of 15% to 20% in 2011 and then 23.8% in 2013. That equates to a 58.6% INCREASE in capital gains THAT'S A BAD THING! In my opinion, there is no way this will NOT affect the real estate market.

Many real estate investors look for a minimum 8-10 % return on their investment when purchasing real estate.... with this new increase they will be earning 0-2%. Would you spend your money on an investment, have to worry about tenants damaging your investment, risk possible frivolous law suites for a 0%-2% return? Of course you wouldn't, no one would. Investors can get a similar return in a Money Market account without any of the risk. As I see it, there are two options. First, investors move out of real estate as an investment vehicle.... again NOT GOOD and second, investors will only purchase properties where they can get an additional discount to account for the additional tax. This will undoubtedly decrease the number of homes purchased by investors.

Less demand (less buyers), greater supply (the number of foreclosures in 2010 is expected to increase dramatically over 2009.... and we saw historically high foreclosures in 2009), it doesn't take a MBA from Harvard to figure out this recovery is going to take years.

Please understand, I'm no expert, and I certainly don't know the Health Care Legislation inside and out. But if the information I have related to capital gains is correct we're in for a long ride. The old saying "Buyer Beware" couldn't be more true, but now Buyers must beware the new Health Care Law, because I believe it does relate to Real Estate! 

What are your thoughts, I'd love to hear from you.

Foreclosure!

• 1,382 sq. ft., 1 bath, 3 bdrm 2 story - MLS® $79,900

Amenia, Dutchess County  -  **Foreclosure**

Attention investors and first time buyers! Great opportunity to restore this wonderful old style home located near the train station and golf course. The home offers lots of potential but needs work! Prices like this don't come around often so hurry, before it’s gone! Sold as-is. Cash offers may be eligible for an express cash closing timeframe of fifteen days.

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Foreclosure!

• 1,632 sq. ft., 2 bath, 3 bdrm 2 story "Colonial" - MLS® $179,900 - Price Reduced!

Pleasant Valley, Dutchess County  -  **Foreclosure**

With rates this low, now is a great time to buy this 3 bedroom Colonial located just minutes from the Taconic. Sold as-is. Buried oil tank on the premises. Cash offers may be eligible for an express cash closing timeframe of 15 days.

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Wow, my head is spinning. Depending on which media source you read or watch, either the sky is falling or as the politicians put it "we've pulled back from the brink". Well I'm no economist and I don't play one on TV so I won't speculate about any "brink". But I do know real estate, real estate markets and how to determine the bottom. And we're not there yet!!!!!

Do the statistics (for Dutchess County NY) show the market decline slowing down.... well sort of. The decline in average sales prices has dropped, we were seeing over 24% year over year decline and now (August 2009 vs August 2008) it's down to a 6.6% decline. Days on market and number of listings are stabilizing some what. So common sense would say the economists may be right when it comes to the Real Estate Market.... right?

Wrong!!!!!

Is the market decline slowing....yes. But it's about to happen all over again! What the media and the so called experts (I'd like to know how you get that title EXPERT.....  think I'll apply for that title, anyone know where I should send in my application.... sorry sarcasim got the best of me!) forgot to mention is the foreclosure moratorium that didn't end until March of this year. So  all the foreclosure that were in process STOPPED! No new foreclosure could start. So what do you think happened in April? You don't have to be  an expert to figure this out.... the courts are jammed and we have a second wave of foreclosures coming.

Here in NY it takes approximately 13 months to complete the foreclosure process. You do the math.... we'll see the 2nd wave in early to mid 2010. The number of REO's will explode, decreasing market values further and causing a ripple effect through the economy....AGAIN! But that's just my opinion, what do I know? ;-)

Foreclosure!

• 2,807 sq. ft., 3 bath, 3 bdrm single story "Raised Ranch" - MLS® $290,000

Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County  -  **Foreclosure**

Attention buyers... Do you need extra space? This lovely Raised Ranch home offers a mother-daughter apartment on the lower level, rear deck, patio, and your very own private pond! Come take a look! Sold as-is. Cash offers may be eligible for an express cash closing timeframe of 15 days.

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Statistics... funny thing about numbers, if you're not careful it's very easy to mis-understand them! Earlier in the year I made a post stating we may be nearing the bottom of this down market. The average number of sales was only down 2.3% compared to the year before and the average sales price was actually up .10% for the same period (compared to the -26.9% in December).

We had been seeing a 24% decline (approx.) in average sales prices for months then it went up .10% in January '09. How come?

Did the new president cause the market to EXPLODE? Nope!
Did all those tax dollars spent to save the banks (TARP) finally trickle down? Nope!

Simple math, that's what happened. The average selling price in Dutchess County, NY is  $372,413.00 (as of January 09). But we had something we don't often see take place, we had one home sell for $6,000,000. Yes, that's 6 MILLION DOLLARS! As you can imagine that skewed the average sales price. The reality is we are seeing signs this declining market is finally slowing. The number of homes for sale declined (less supply), the number of purchase offers is up (more demand) and the days on market is holding. All good signs, but in the end, the average sales price is still decreasing about -24% (year over year). So we're not out of the storm yet, but the sun appears to be peaking its head through. Lets hope the spring market brings a turn in prices. 

February 2009 Sales Statistics

market statistics provided by Mid-Hudson MLS

Foreclosure!

• 1,850 sq. ft., 3 bath, 3 bdrm townhouse - MLS® $390,000 - Deal fell through!

Fishkill, Dutchess County  -  **Foreclosure**

Sizable 3 bedroom townhouse in sought-after Van Wyck Meadows. Offers a rear deck off the dining area, first floor laundry room, central air, and a walk-out basement. Priced below market for immediate sale!!!

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After months of doule digit decreases in average sales prices, increases in inventory and days on the market we finally see some stabilization. Below are our current statistics

As you can see, closed sales is only down 2.3% which is a significant difference compared to the 26% last month. Now this may be a blip in the statistics, we'll need to see next months figures to know for sure but its a nice start! So what does this mean for buyers and seller? First, these states are dated, meaning the sales figures are based on negotiations that took place back in November/December and closed in January. Assuming these figures hold, we already hit a bottom. Moral of the story... don't try to time the market. Had you purchased a property in December rates where much lower and you would have purchased near the bottom (assuming these stats hold). Now rates are near 5.5% on a 30 yr fixed rate mortgage, meaning you've lost nearly $10,000 in buying power (keeping the monthly mortgage payment the same, a mortgage at 5.5% interest buys you less house than at 5%, etc..). Lastly, don't buy or sell based on the market. Yes, market conditions should play a part in anyones decision making process but you shouldn't make your decision based soley on the market. If you have an opportunity to buy a home, want to own a home, and find the perfect home.... then buy it! Don't wait to see if rates will drop or prices will continue to go down. Timing the real estate market is like timing the stock market.... not simple to do! So make your decisions based on needs and wants not buying at the perfect time.

Foreclosure!

• 1,125 sq. ft., 1 bath, 3 bdrm ranch - MLS® $175,000

Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County  -  **Foreclosure**

Perfect opportunity for first time buyer or investor. A little sweat equity goes a long way. Offers a family room off the kitchen. Go take a look! Sold as-is.

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