The new Health Care legislation has been a very hot topic lately. Regardless of which side of the fence you fall on, it's important to know how this legislation will affect you individually. Unfortunately this is easier said than done, even the Politicians that voted it into law don't know the in's and outs of this legislation. I believe it was Nancy Pelosi that said "We have to pass this bill so you can find out what's in it" .... really, is that the best way to create law? Since this isn't a political blog I'll leave that one for the Pundits.
We all know this will affect our health care. For some it will make it better for others it may make it worse. Some people will have to pay more while others will pay less. I run a small business so all of this is very important to me, but what really concerns me is will this affect the Real Estate Market?
As we found out with the mortgage crisis, as the real estate market tumbles, the economy is likely to follow. There is so much tied to the real estate markets, new construction, residential resale to the rental market. Jobs are on the line, financial markets are on the line, and much more. It's important for Politicians to understand the side effects of the laws they pass. What has caught my attention is the drastic increase in the Capital Gains Tax. This new legislation calls for major increases in the Capital Gains tax to help pay for it.
I'm told we are currently experiencing a "Jobless Recovery" from the current recession. Sounds like an oxymoron to me, but I don't hold one of those fancy "EXPERT" titles. I've tried applying but keep getting turned down based on my excessive use of common sense. Sorry I digress! So we have a recovery taking place even though unemployment is at record levels. Real estate prices are extremely low in many parts of the country and interest rates are being kept artificially low even with the threat of inflation. My experience, most buyers currently in the market are investors and first time homebuyers that were priced out of the market previously. An increase in the capital gains tax won't affect first time homebuyers purchasing homes to live in (at least in the short term). THAT'S A GOOD THING! But we have a large percentage of buyers purchasing as investments, either to fix and resell homes to owner occupants or purchasing rentals. According to Christopher Neefus of CNSNews.com the new law calls for an increase in "Unearned Income" from the current rate of 15% to 20% in 2011 and then 23.8% in 2013. That equates to a 58.6% INCREASE in capital gains THAT'S A BAD THING! In my opinion, there is no way this will NOT affect the real estate market.
Many real estate investors look for a minimum 8-10 % return on their investment when purchasing real estate.... with this new increase they will be earning 0-2%. Would you spend your money on an investment, have to worry about tenants damaging your investment, risk possible frivolous law suites for a 0%-2% return? Of course you wouldn't, no one would. Investors can get a similar return in a Money Market account without any of the risk. As I see it, there are two options. First, investors move out of real estate as an investment vehicle.... again NOT GOOD and second, investors will only purchase properties where they can get an additional discount to account for the additional tax. This will undoubtedly decrease the number of homes purchased by investors.
Less demand (less buyers), greater supply (the number of foreclosures in 2010 is expected to increase dramatically over 2009.... and we saw historically high foreclosures in 2009), it doesn't take a MBA from Harvard to figure out this recovery is going to take years.
Please understand, I'm no expert, and I certainly don't know the Health Care Legislation inside and out. But if the information I have related to capital gains is correct we're in for a long ride. The old saying "Buyer Beware" couldn't be more true, but now Buyers must beware the new Health Care Law, because I believe it does relate to Real Estate!
What are your thoughts, I'd love to hear from you.