Monday, March 23, 2009 1:58 PM
Curt Darragh
Don't Be Misled...
Statistics... funny thing about numbers, if you're not careful it's very easy to mis-understand them! Earlier in the year I made a post stating we may be nearing the bottom of this down market. The average number of sales was only down 2.3% compared to the year before and the average sales price was actually up .10% for the same period (compared to the -26.9% in December).
We had been seeing a 24% decline (approx.) in average sales prices for months then it went up .10% in January '09. How come?
Did the new president cause the market to EXPLODE? Nope!
Did all those tax dollars spent to save the banks (TARP) finally trickle down? Nope!
Simple math, that's what happened. The average selling price in Dutchess County, NY is $372,413.00 (as of January 09). But we had something we don't often see take place, we had one home sell for $6,000,000. Yes, that's 6 MILLION DOLLARS! As you can imagine that skewed the average sales price. The reality is we are seeing signs this declining market is finally slowing. The number of homes for sale declined (less supply), the number of purchase offers is up (more demand) and the days on market is holding. All good signs, but in the end, the average sales price is still decreasing about -24% (year over year). So we're not out of the storm yet, but the sun appears to be peaking its head through. Lets hope the spring market brings a turn in prices.
February 2009 Sales Statistics
market statistics provided by Mid-Hudson MLS
SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED | Feb. '08 | Jan. '09 | Feb. '09 | Yr Chg |
| | | | | |
Current Closed Sales | 117 | 86 | 71 | -39.3 |
| | | | | |
Current Average Selling Price | 389,540 | 372,413 | 297,226 | -23.7 |
| | | | | |
Current Average Days on Market | 145 | 134 | 144 | -0.7 |
| | | | | |
Available Listings 1st of Month | 1832 | 1668 | 1678 | -8.4 |
| | | | | |
Purchase Offers 1st of Month | 101 | 110 | 107 |