|
|
-
Sorry that title is incorrect.... it should read "CRASHES!" I've been saying this since the White House requested this back in January. I've seen articles in the Investors Bussiness Daily & the Wall Street Journal mention it, but no one else seems to be discussing it. WHY..... THE FORECLOSURE MORITORIUM
The Foreclosure Moritorium didn't end until March 2009. That means all foreclosures stopped dead in their tracks and no new foreclosures began. In my state (NY) it takes approximately 13 months to complete the process. That puts us into early/mid 2010 before all the back log hits the market. How can I put this..... 2010 WILL BE WORSE THEN 2009
That's crash #1. This is simple supply and demand. When this wave of foreclosures hits the market, the market will drop.... again! Add to this the amount of debt the government has added to the deficiet, the amount of money that's been printed, the fact it's very likely Oil will no longer be sold in Dollars and guess what comes next? INFLATION, when it hits the fed will have no choice but to chase after it raising interest rates. The problem is, with all this run away government spending, by the time the inflation explodes, they won't be able to catch up to it. (we won't mention the fact that as rates rise, so will the deficiet) I'm realitively young (35) so I wasn't old enough to see interest rates at 18-20%, but my parents did. Well that will look like a discount when this inflation hits! Crash #2..... Why hasn't anyone else seen this, or if they, why haven't they spoken about it? Over 90% of all loans today are government backed (FNMA, FREDDIE & FHA). If a buyer doesn't have 5%, 10%, 20%+ to put down on the purchase of a new home, what do they do? FHA! In their great wisdom, the men and women of Congress (who created most of this mess to begin with), decided that after the great real estate "bubble" went POP, we need real strict underwriting guidelines. "FHA..... increase the down payment requirement from 3% to 3.5% that should do it" REALLY? 1/2 % that's going to decrease defaults, discourage buyers who can't truly afford a home from buying? REALLY! It's happening all over again, but the difference this time? You and I will all be on the hook becuase these loans are backed by taxpayers! You think the bank bailouts were expensive, wait until Crash #2. Just my thoughts for they day.... what are yours?
|
-
Foreclosure!
• 1,632 sq. ft., 2 bath, 3 bdrm 2 story "Colonial" -  MLS® $179,900 - Price Reduced! Pleasant Valley, Dutchess County - **Foreclosure**
With rates this low, now is a great time to buy this 3 bedroom Colonial located just minutes from the Taconic. Sold as-is. Buried oil tank on the premises. Cash offers may be eligible for an express cash closing timeframe of 15 days. Property information
|
-
Wow, my head is spinning. Depending on which media source you read or watch, either the sky is falling or as the politicians put it "we've pulled back from the brink". Well I'm no economist and I don't play one on TV so I won't speculate about any "brink". But I do know real estate, real estate markets and how to determine the bottom. And we're not there yet!!!!! Do the statistics (for Dutchess County NY) show the market decline slowing down.... well sort of. The decline in average sales prices has dropped, we were seeing over 24% year over year decline and now (August 2009 vs August 2008) it's down to a 6.6% decline. Days on market and number of listings are stabilizing some what. So common sense would say the economists may be right when it comes to the Real Estate Market.... right?
Wrong!!!!!
Is the market decline slowing....yes. But it's about to happen all over again! What the media and the so called experts (I'd like to know how you get that title EXPERT..... think I'll apply for that title, anyone know where I should send in my application.... sorry sarcasim got the best of me!) forgot to mention is the foreclosure moratorium that didn't end until March of this year. So all the foreclosure that were in process STOPPED! No new foreclosure could start. So what do you think happened in April? You don't have to be an expert to figure this out.... the courts are jammed and we have a second wave of foreclosures coming.
Here in NY it takes approximately 13 months to complete the foreclosure process. You do the math.... we'll see the 2nd wave in early to mid 2010. The number of REO's will explode, decreasing market values further and causing a ripple effect through the economy....AGAIN! But that's just my opinion, what do I know? ;-)
|
-
Foreclosure!
• 2,807 sq. ft., 3 bath, 3 bdrm single story "Raised Ranch" - MLS® $290,000 Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County - **Foreclosure**
Attention buyers... Do you need extra space? This lovely Raised Ranch home offers a mother-daughter apartment on the lower level, rear deck, patio, and your very own private pond! Come take a look! Sold as-is. Cash offers may be eligible for an express cash closing timeframe of 15 days. Property information
|
-
Statistics... funny thing about numbers, if you're not careful it's very easy to mis-understand them! Earlier in the year I made a post stating we may be nearing the bottom of this down market. The average number of sales was only down 2.3% compared to the year before and the average sales price was actually up .10% for the same period (compared to the -26.9% in December).
We had been seeing a 24% decline (approx.) in average sales prices for months then it went up .10% in January '09. How come?
Did the new president cause the market to EXPLODE? Nope!
Did all those tax dollars spent to save the banks (TARP) finally trickle down? Nope!
Simple math, that's what happened. The average selling price in Dutchess County, NY is $372,413.00 (as of January 09). But we had something we don't often see take place, we had one home sell for $6,000,000. Yes, that's 6 MILLION DOLLARS! As you can imagine that skewed the average sales price. The reality is we are seeing signs this declining market is finally slowing. The number of homes for sale declined (less supply), the number of purchase offers is up (more demand) and the days on market is holding. All good signs, but in the end, the average sales price is still decreasing about -24% (year over year). So we're not out of the storm yet, but the sun appears to be peaking its head through. Lets hope the spring market brings a turn in prices.
February 2009 Sales Statistics
market statistics provided by Mid-Hudson MLS
SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED | Feb. '08 | Jan. '09 | Feb. '09 | Yr Chg | | | | | | | Current Closed Sales | 117 | 86 | 71 | -39.3 | | | | | | | Current Average Selling Price | 389,540 | 372,413 | 297,226 | -23.7 | | | | | | | Current Average Days on Market | 145 | 134 | 144 | -0.7 | | | | | | | Available Listings 1st of Month | 1832 | 1668 | 1678 | -8.4 | | | | | | | Purchase Offers 1st of Month | 101 | 110 | 107 |
|
-
Foreclosure!
• 1,850 sq. ft., 3 bath, 3 bdrm townhouse - MLS® $390,000 - Deal fell through! Fishkill, Dutchess County - **Foreclosure**
Sizable 3 bedroom townhouse in sought-after Van Wyck Meadows. Offers a rear deck off the dining area, first floor laundry room, central air, and a walk-out basement. Priced below market for immediate sale!!! Property information
|
-
After months of doule digit decreases in average sales prices, increases in inventory and days on the market we finally see some stabilization. Below are our current statistics | SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED | Jan '08 | | Dec '08 | | Jan '09 | Yr Chg | | | | | | | | | | Current Closed Sales | 88 | | 89 | | 86 | -2.3 | | Y-T-D Closed Sales | 88 | | 1371 | | 86 | -2.3 | | Current Average Selling Price | 371,990 | | 294,005 | | 372,413 | 0.1 | | Y-T-D Average Selling Price | 371,990 | | 351,780 | | 372,413 | 0.1 | | Current Median Selling Price | 330,000 | | 280,000 | | 280,000 | -15.2 | | Current Sales Dollar Volume | 32,735,120 | | 26,166,445 | | 32,027,518 | -2.2 | | Y-T-D Sales Dollar Volume | 32,735,120 | | 482,290,658 | | 32,027,518 | -2.2 | | | | | | | | | | Current Average Days on Market | 151 | | 126 | | 134 | -11.3 | | Y-T-D Average Days on Market | 151 | | 131 | | 134 | -11.3 | | Available Listings 1st of Month | 1904 | | 1957 | | 1668 | -12.4 | | Purchase Offers 1st of Month | 101 | | 139 | | 110 | 8.9 |
As you can see, closed sales is only down 2.3% which is a significant difference compared to the 26% last month. Now this may be a blip in the statistics, we'll need to see next months figures to know for sure but its a nice start! So what does this mean for buyers and seller? First, these states are dated, meaning the sales figures are based on negotiations that took place back in November/December and closed in January. Assuming these figures hold, we already hit a bottom. Moral of the story... don't try to time the market. Had you purchased a property in December rates where much lower and you would have purchased near the bottom (assuming these stats hold). Now rates are near 5.5% on a 30 yr fixed rate mortgage, meaning you've lost nearly $10,000 in buying power (keeping the monthly mortgage payment the same, a mortgage at 5.5% interest buys you less house than at 5%, etc..). Lastly, don't buy or sell based on the market. Yes, market conditions should play a part in anyones decision making process but you shouldn't make your decision based soley on the market. If you have an opportunity to buy a home, want to own a home, and find the perfect home.... then buy it! Don't wait to see if rates will drop or prices will continue to go down. Timing the real estate market is like timing the stock market.... not simple to do! So make your decisions based on needs and wants not buying at the perfect time.
|
-
Foreclosure!
• 1,125 sq. ft., 1 bath, 3 bdrm ranch - MLS® $175,000 Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County - **Foreclosure**
Perfect opportunity for first time buyer or investor. A little sweat equity goes a long way. Offers a family room off the kitchen. Go take a look! Sold as-is.
Property information
|
-
As a REO agent (real estate owned aka bank owned foreclosures) I see this scenario happen over and over. A buyer wants to put an offer in on a bank owned foreclosure. They find out there is currently an accepted offer and decide to wait and see what happens. Here's the problem with that scenario, if the current accepted offer falls through (which happens often), the listing agent will typically contact the current back up offers and see if their offers still stand. Most of the time they do, so the listing agent resubmits those offers and they begin the negotiations. By the time the property is changed in the MLS (multiple listing service) to active again, your agents see's that it's active, contacts you and you decide to make an offer, its too late! 90% of the time, one of the back up offers will be negotiated on and accepted before you even find out the first deal fell through. You miss out again. To make matters worse, most buyers still don't learn their lesson and again decide not to put a back up offer in. So to pour a little more salt on the wound, the next deal falls through and again the buyer misses out! Here are a few tips to help you succeed when trying to purchase bank owned foreclosures: Be prepared - if you need a mortgage, get your pre-approval first and have it ready to submit along with your written offer. If paying cash, have proof of funds available (this can be a copy of your bank statement - don't forget to black out the account #, or a letter from your bank representative stating you have suffiencient funds to purchase a house for $XYZ amount) Make your offer! Just becuase there is an accepted offer doesn't mean you shouldn't still write up an offer (also known as a back up offer). If your agent is telling you its a waste of time... GET A NEW AGENT! They are supposed to be representing you, if you want the property, make the offer. Trust me you'll be happy you did. Have all your ducks in a row - Make sure you have chosen and spoken to your real estate attorney ahead of time. Let them know you are making offers on bank owned properties. When your offer is accepted, there are strict deadlines that must be met or the bank will move on to the next offer. Be prepared to move quickly (typically, the contracts must be signed and returned within 5 calendar days). This means your attorney will need to meet with you to go over the contracts as soon as possibly. Don't wait until you have an accepted offer to start calling and interviewing attorneys.
So the moral of this story, PULL THE TRIGGER. Don't wait to see wait happens just because there's already an accepted offer. Put in a back up offer and stay in contact with the listing agent.
|
-
It seems the theme of the day has moved from "FORECLOSURES" to "SHORT SALES". So what exactly are these "SHORT SALES"? Well, simply put, its when the value of the home is lower than the amount owed to the mortgage company. You sell the house for less than is owed and the bank accepts that payment and removes the mortgage (the security that attaches to the properties title). So what are some of the pro's to selling your home as a short sale: 1. If you have fallen behind on your mortgage, you can sell your home and keep from having to go through the foreclosure process. 2. By selling the home vs losing it to foreclosure you will help keep your credit in tact. Yes, your credit will be negatively effected by the late payments, but this is much better than having a foreclosure show up on your credit report. 3. Saves you any embaressment of having your home auctioned off and the sherrifs dept. remove you from the home. Now the cons: 1. They take much longer than the typical real estate transaction. Short Sales can take up to 6 months to complete. 2. There's no gaurantee after you find a buyer that the bank will accept the sale. The bank doesn't have to accept less then they are owed. Its important to work with someone that can explain to the banks loss mitigation deptartment why it's in their best interest to accept the sale. 3. Just becuase the bank accepts the terms, doesn't mean your off the hook. For example, if you owed $300K to the bank and sold your house for $275k, the bank didn't recieve $25,000 (the difference in what was owed vs the sales price). You could find yourself receiving an IRS Form 1099 in the mail come tax time. This could be considered taxable income. There is an IRS form 982 that may allow you to get around this. President Bush also passed a bill that allows you to write this off without paying taxes, but there are certain criteria you must meet. You should speak with a Tax Professional to make sure you qualify and don't get hit with a huge tax bill. 4. The process can be very frustrating. If you don't know what your doing, I recommend working with an experienced agent or even an attorney. You will need to provide certain documentation in order to get your short sale approved, such as a net sheet, hardship letter, financials, etc.... Much like when you applied for your mortgage you had to provide documentation to show you could qualify for the loan, now you're doing the opposite, you showing documentation to show you no longer qualify. I hope this quick description helps you better understand the latest buzz word. Remember, if you've fallen behind on your mortage, you don't have to lose your house to foreclosure. You have options, the key is not to procrastinate. The earlier you deal with the issue, the more solutions you will have available (such as a forebearance, loan modification, short sale, dead in lieu of foreclosure just to name a few).
|
-
East Fishkill, Dutchess County - Announcing a price reduction on 96 Brown Road, a 1,300 sq. ft., 2 bath, 3 bdrm ranch. Now MLS® $299,900 - PRICE REDUCED!. Property information
|
-
Pleasant Valley, Dutchess County - Announcing a price reduction on 71 Albrecht Lane, a 2,184 sq. ft., 3 bath, 4 bdrm colonial. Now MLS® $379,900 - PRICE REDUCED!. Property information
|
-
Below are the most current market stats for the Dutchess County, NY area. Notice the average sales price dropped over 13%, that number by itself doesn't mean much, but when you look at last months numbers, the decrease was over 8%. There seems to be a pattern emerging and it doesn't look good for sellers who purchased in 2004-2006 during the peak. Up to this point we've been seeing 2-3% decreases in the average selling prices (not bad, some may even say the market needed it), last month it jumped from the 2-3% to over 8%. Many were hoping this was just a statistical hick up, but with this months numbers in that doesn't seem to be the case. So what does all this mean..... well to put it frankly IT'S A BUYERS MARKET. Not news for any of you I'm sure. If you've read a newspaper, turned on the news or logged onto the internet, I'm sure you've seen all the "THE SKY IS FALLING" media frenzy. You know... "The Housing Crisis" or my favorite "The Housing Recession". The reality is this is just part of the process. Real Estate runs in cycles, it goes up and it goes down and we are currently in a down market. But if you go back to April 2002, the average selling price was $237,802, now compare that to April 2008 $345,223. That's a 45% increase in 5 years. As my favorite stock predictor puts it "we're taking a little off the top". I can't predict the future but I believe that 2008 will be the hardest hit in this down market and we'll see the sales prices begin to decrease at a slower rate in early 2009 with the market bottoming out in late 2009 - early 2010. So good news for buyers right.... not so fast. This is an election year, and keeping the economy above water will be front and center, but come December things will change. The dollar has been taking it on the chin for a while now and the Fed can't continue to lower rates without sending our economy into a tailspin. As the dollar weakens the cost of oil increases. As oil/gas increase, inflation will set in. I expect as soon at this election is over you'll see interest rates rise, probably not double digits but likely in the 7-8% range. So if you find right house, don't snooze or you may lose! This year will provide some of the best buying opportunites and rates aren't likely to stay this low for ever. April 2008 Sales Statistics
|
|
|
| SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED Apr '07 Mar '08 Apr '08 Yr Chg Current Closed Sales 140 83 129 -7.9 Current Average Selling Price 398,339 374,227 345,223 -13.3 Current Median Selling Price 345,000 337,000 310,000 -10.1 Current Average Days on Market 137 130 127 -7.3 Available Listings 1st of Month 1849 1878 1937 4.8 Purchase Offers 1st of Month 123 103 115 -6.5 |
|
-
• 2,450 sq. ft., 2 bath, 3 bdrm 3 story "Victorian" - MLS® $289,000 - Foreclosure! Beacon, Dutchess County - **Foreclosure**
Great Victorian, tons of charm from yester years! Two fireplaces, extra room on third floor, barn/garage needs work. Great opportunity for investor. Minutes from I-84, Taconic and trains. Sold as-is, taxes to be confirmed. Has suffered from freeze damage. Perfect for investor, contractor, handyman! Property information
|
-
Beacon, Dutchess County - Announcing a price reduction on 44 Old Glenham Road, a 2,450 sq. ft., 2 bath, 3 bdrm 3 story "Victorian". Now MLS® $289,000 - Foreclosure!. Property information
|
|
|
|